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After several months of war threats by Donald Trump against the Islamic Republic-accompanied by the deployment of the most advanced military equipment to the waters of the Persian Gulf-aerial and missile attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran finally began in the early morning hours of Saturday, February 28, 2026 (9 Esfand 1404).<\/p>\n
The intensity and scale of these attacks were so great that in the very first hours of the assault Ali Khamenei and several senior commanders of the Islamic Republic were killed. Following Khamenei\u2019s death, the Islamic Republic carried out a series of retaliatory operations, firing missiles at Israeli territory as well as at U.S. bases in the countries of the Gulf region.<\/p>\n
What happened on February 28 of this year was not a sudden event. Rather, the second round of military attacks by the United States and Israel against the Islamic Republic continued the aerial and missile operations that had already taken place in the first round last June, carried out by Donald Trump and the \u201cfascist\u201d Benjamin Netanyahu against Iran.<\/p>\n
During the twelve-day war, heavy blows were inflicted on the murderous regime of the Islamic Republic and its nuclear facilities. Yet the temporary end of the fighting-contrary to Trump\u2019s expectations-did not lead to Khamenei\u2019s capitulation. Consequently, Trump entered a new phase of maximum pressure on the Islamic Republic in order to enforce his unmet demands and, beyond that, with the aim of reshaping the entire political-military order of the region.<\/p>\n
The complete cessation of uranium enrichment, the handover of 408 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent, the reduction of the range of ballistic missiles, and the Islamic Republic\u2019s renunciation of support for its proxy forces in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen were among Trump\u2019s initial demands after the twelve-day war. Accepting these demands would have meant a complete capitulation of the Islamic Republic to the U.S. government-something that was impossible for Khamenei to accept, particularly the reduction of the range of ballistic missiles.<\/p>\n
Therefore, what occurred on February 28 was not a sudden event but the result of a conflict that had been developing for many years. The nuclear and missile issues were merely the visible aspects of a long-standing struggle between the governments of Iran and the United States over several decades-an unresolved conflict that, after years of verbal and diplomatic confrontations, ultimately culminated in two direct military wars: the first on June 13, 2025, and the second on February 28, 2026.<\/p>\n
If before the twelve-day war-and partly even in the months preceding the outbreak of the present war-there had been even a slight possibility of a diplomatic agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic, with the beginning of the second war the path of diplomacy for resolving disputes between the two sides has now been completely blocked.<\/p>\n
The killing of Ali Khamenei, the lack of cohesion within the political and military leadership, the reduced effectiveness of the Islamic Republic\u2019s air defense, the round-the-clock bombardment of missile sites, the destruction of a large portion of launching systems, damage to state institutions, military facilities, the army\u2019s general staff, the police, security agencies, and Basij bases-together with a series of other blows inflicted on the structure of the Islamic Republic during the first week of the war-have not only blocked the previous diplomatic path but have also created the objective conditions for the defeat and collapse of the Islamic Republic.<\/p>\n
The emergence of this situation has prompted Donald Trump to intensify air bombardments and missile attacks in order to force the Islamic Republic into total capitulation.<\/p>\n
The losses of the Islamic Republic during the first week of the war alone have been so severe that the Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff spoke of the complete destruction of the Islamic Republic\u2019s naval fleet and the elimination of its air defense systems. Since the seventh day of the war, Iranian airspace has effectively become a safe flight corridor for U.S. and Israeli warplanes.<\/p>\n
General Dan Caine stated on Wednesday, the fifth day of Israeli and U.S. airstrikes on Iran, that the number of ballistic missiles launched by the Islamic Republic had decreased by 86 percent compared to the first day of fighting, and that within the 24 hours leading up to the fifth day of the war an additional decline of 23 percent had been recorded.<\/p>\n
He further emphasized that more than twenty warships of the Islamic Republic had been destroyed, numbers that have since risen to thirty. Moreover, attacks carried out by one-way \u201ckamikaze\u201d drones by the Islamic Republic had decreased by 73 percent compared to the first days of the fighting.<\/p>\n
Regardless of the claims of the Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, even if only half of these assertions were true, it would still mean that the missile and drone capacities of the Islamic Republic have been severely damaged. Given such losses-already by the fifth day of the fighting-it is possible even now to foresee a defeat and potential collapse of the Islamic Republic as this reactionary war continues.<\/p>\n
Based on the experience of the twelve-day war, the Islamic Republic placed its greatest hopes on its arsenal of ballistic missiles. For this reason, from the very first day of the attacks by the United States and Israel-following instructions from Ali Khamenei, who before his death had declared his intention to expand the war regionally-it launched simultaneous retaliatory missile strikes against Israel and against countries in the Gulf region.<\/p>\n
The Islamic Republic assumed that by attacking Persian Gulf states and drawing them into the war it could force the United States to retreat. In this context it even extended its missile strikes-beyond the Gulf states-to Turkey, Cyprus, and the Republic of Azerbaijan.<\/p>\n
This policy, which inflicted heavy losses on U.S. bases, ultimately proved detrimental to the Islamic Republic. The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, and even Turkey-rather than supporting the Islamic Republic-turned against it. The missile strike on Turkey, a NATO member, also led France and the United Kingdom to support the attacks of the United States and Israel on Iran.<\/p>\n
Although the Islamic Republic has inflicted relatively significant damage on Israel and on U.S. bases in the Gulf states during this war, the course of the war has not shifted in its favor. Even now, the Islamic Republic is regarded as the loser of this reactionary war.<\/p>\n
The course of the fighting and the losses inflicted upon the Islamic Republic during the first seven days of the war all point to the same reality: the regime will not be able to withstand the heavy air and missile attacks by the United States and Israel, which have intensified significantly since Friday due to their control of Iranian airspace.<\/p>\n
All indications suggest that the regime cannot continue to exist in its present form. The longer the Islamic Republic resists and the longer the war continues, the weaker the ruling reaction in Iran will become and the closer its collapse will approach-possibly accompanied by even more complex developments.<\/p>\n
On March 5, 2026, Donald Trump presented the current leaders of the Islamic Republic with his proposal for changing the external form of the regime and explained the possible future of the war.<\/p>\n
What he openly declared was this: either the collapse of the regime-or the complete capitulation of the Islamic Republic before such a collapse, in order to form a \u201cmoderate\u201d government from within the system under his supervision.<\/p>\n
Addressing the current officials of the Islamic Republic directly, Trump stated:<\/p>\n
\u201cAli Khamenei\u2019s son is a weak and insignificant person\u2026 I must have a say in choosing the next leader.\u201d<\/p>\n
By declaring that if Mojtaba Khamenei were chosen he would be killed like his father, Trump called on the current leadership to select a \u201cmoderate\u201d figure from within the system and submit to the political dictates of the U.S. government under his supervision.<\/p>\n
A day later, in an interview with CNN, he stated that it was not necessary for Iran\u2019s next leader to be secular, nor even necessary for Iran to become a full democracy. What mattered, he said, was that the new leader be \u201cfair,\u201d govern the country well, and behave appropriately toward the United States, Israel, and the countries of the region. (Emphasis ours.)<\/em><\/p>\n Up to this point, Donald Trump\u2019s position has been to force the Islamic Republic into total capitulation. Contrary to what his war-enthusiastic and illusion-ridden supporters believe, Trump\u2019s policy is not aimed at establishing democracy in Iran, defending the interests of the Iranian people, or necessarily overthrowing the Islamic Republic.<\/p>\n What Trump actually seeks is to stabilize the existing order and preserve the system in a new form-one that differs from the current political appearance of the Islamic Republic. From his perspective it is irrelevant whether the future system will have democratic features. Nor does it matter to him whether the lives of the broad population of Iran are destroyed or whether the country\u2019s entire infrastructure is devastated. The only thing that matters is that the future leader be \u201cfair\u201d and guarantee the interests of the United States.<\/p>\n Referring to the experience of Iraq, he stated that the mistake the United States made after the fall of Saddam Hussein must not be repeated in Iran. Unlike in Iraq, the army and other forces of the Islamic Republic should not be completely dismantled. Instead, these very military forces-especially the army and the Revolutionary Guards-should ensure the continuation of a reshaped system of the Islamic Republic through the selection of a new leader according to his own choice.<\/p>\n At the same time, however, several special factors must be considered: the particular situation of the Islamic Republic, the condition of social movements, the eruption of anger among the broad population of Iran, and the situation of oppressed nationalities within the country. These complexities distinguish Iran fundamentally from Venezuela.<\/p>\n The situation in Iran-with its deeply intertwined and difficult contradictions-is far more complex than Trump can address with a single solution.<\/p>\n The Islamic Republic in its current form has reached its final days and weeks. Within the country and internationally, the fate of this regime has already been sealed.<\/p>\n Yet liberation and freedom for the Iranian people will not come through missiles and continuous bombardments by the United States and Israel.<\/p>\n Nevertheless, that is not the whole story. This reactionary and destructive war could take on another dimension in the days of the collapse of the Islamic Republic-one that may not correspond to the expectations of the United States, the Islamic Republic itself, or the various bourgeois alternatives abroad.<\/p>\n The prerequisite is that the workers and the broad masses of Iran begin preparing now for the days of the regime\u2019s collapse.<\/p>\n Through the formation of councils and neighborhood committees they must prepare themselves to assume political power.<\/p>\n If workers organize clandestine strike committees and coordination bodies for a political general strike, if teachers, nurses, retirees, women, students, writers, artists, lawyers, and other social groups prepare themselves now for the days of the regime\u2019s disintegration-then there should be no doubt:<\/p>\n In the days of the collapse of the Islamic Republic, the war situation could develop into a social revolution, and the course of that revolution could bring about radical and fundamental changes in favor of the workers and the broad masses of the Iranian people.<\/p>\n Published in K\u0101r (Labor), organ of the Organization of Fadaian (aghaliyat), No. 1160, March 9, 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" After several months of war threats by Donald Trump against the Islamic Republic-accompanied by the deployment of the most advanced military equipment to the waters of the Persian Gulf-aerial and missile attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran finally began in the early morning hours of Saturday, February 28, 2026 (9 Esfand 1404). 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